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Island Woman MJ
Island Expert
| Joined: | Mon Dec 25th, 2006 |
| Location: | Culebra |
| Posts: | 2267 |
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Posted: Sun Jun 1st, 2008 02:40 am |
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Well...here we go. I wasn't home when this (previously Alma when in the Pacific) storm hit the other side, so I'm in hurry up catch up mode. Best to let the experts tell you what is going on and I'll check it out in more depth tomorrow...maybe AFTER a little while at the cart and a lot longer voting and celebrating!
What I WILL say myself is...one day before the season and it has officially and surprisingly begun. Will you be ready if next week we're in the surprise zone?
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
700 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUES AS ARTHUR MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE
SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH BELIZE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...WEST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM... EAST OF
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO.
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND COULD EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION TONIGHT...BUT IT COULD LATER REGAIN TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH IF IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
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Attachment: at200801.gif (Downloaded 35 times)
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Island Woman MJ
Island Expert
| Joined: | Mon Dec 25th, 2006 |
| Location: | Culebra |
| Posts: | 2267 |
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Posted: Sun Jun 1st, 2008 11:29 am |
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TS Arthur is staying inland for now, dumping rain with a possible 15 inches over Belize, Guatemala and southern Mexico. We know the damage rain can do
Forecasts say it could be downgraded or emerge over water...oh, I remember that feeling of "What will happen next?" I didn't expect to feel it this soon though.
Will Arthur go back where he came from? North or south or east or west? Pin the tail on the model...
Attachment: at200801_climo.gif (Downloaded 32 times)
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admin
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| Joined: | Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 |
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Posted: Sun Jun 1st, 2008 11:41 am |
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oh crap. too early
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admin
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Posted: Sun Jun 1st, 2008 08:23 pm |
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here is Jeff Master's blog on the gender confusion among hurricanes.....
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=954&tstamp=200806
Buckle your seat belts, hurricane season is here! If the formation of Arthur on the day before hurricane season officially starts is any indication, we are in for a strange and unusual season. Alma, the Eastern Pacific tropical storm that hit Nicaragua Thursday, fell apart over the high mountains of Honduras. The remnants reorganized over the Western Caribbean on Saturday morning and became Arthur. Had Alma maintained her identity as a tropical depression during the crossing, she would have kept her name. As it was, Alma died, had a posthumous sex change, and became reborn as a man named Arthur. Only two tropical storms since 1949 have made the crossing from Pacific to Atlantic and maintained at least tropical depression status during the crossing:
Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison (June 1989).
A Northeast Pacific tropical storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane Storm #10 and made landfall in Texas.
Seven tropical cyclones have survived the crossing from Atlantic to Pacific. I'm not sure how many cases have occurred like Alma/Arthur, where the remnants of a tropical storm reform into a new cyclone in different ocean basin.
Did Arthur form over land?
Arthur was also unusual in that the first advisory position for the storm was inland over northern Belize, about 30 miles from the ocean. Technically, the storm probably formed while the center was just offshore or right at the coast, but NHC did not name it until the center was already inland. There is one other case of NHC issuing its first advisory on a system while it was over land--Hurricane Agnes, which became a tropical depression on June 14, 1972, while centered over the Yucatan Peninsula. Since the Yucatan is a relatively narrow strip of land with very warm ocean waters on three sides, one can form a tropical depression centered over land here in rare cases, when the large-scale atmospheric patterns are very favorable for tropical storm formation.
____________________
Life is short. Break the rules, Forgive quickly, Love truly, Laugh uncontrollably,
and never regret anything that made you smile!
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Island Woman MJ
Island Expert
| Joined: | Mon Dec 25th, 2006 |
| Location: | Culebra |
| Posts: | 2267 |
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Posted: Mon Jun 2nd, 2008 12:01 pm |
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Fizzled down, the NHC is not putting out anymore info on this system...
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