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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Fri Jul 4th, 2008 11:36 am |
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While I was being tired and not checking the weather, 92L became TS Bertha and 93L came and went (the system south of us down the island chain).
I'll let the pics of Bertha speak for themselves. The models and fairly complicated official discussions and forecasts have her going north before getting too close to us...um, did I mention be prepared?
Attachment: 084312W_sm.gif (Downloaded 59 times)
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Fri Jul 4th, 2008 11:58 am |
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| more... Attachment: at200802_model.gif (Downloaded 59 times)
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Fri Jul 4th, 2008 12:05 pm |
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Today we might see some rain on our 4th of July celebrations, but if you are in the water anyway, you'll already be wet, so no worries!
Attachment: 7:4:08Dawn.jpg (Downloaded 58 times)
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Fri Jul 4th, 2008 10:49 pm |
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part of the 5 p.m. Bertha discussion - if this track holds, if Bertha stays together, it will be about 430 miles north of us when it goes by us
BERTHA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OR 290/16. LITTLE CHANGE IN HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS AS THE STORM REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.
THE GFDL TRACK HAS NOW SHIFTED WESTWARD AND HAS JOINED THE REMAINDER
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF WHICH STILL INSISTS ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT HAS SHIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHWESTWARD AT DAYS 3-5... IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 15.5N 31.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 16.2N 34.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 16.8N 37.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 17.4N 41.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 17.9N 45.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 19.2N 51.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 21.5N 56.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 23.5N 60.5W 60 KT |
Last edited on Fri Jul 4th, 2008 10:50 pm by Island Woman MJ
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sat Jul 5th, 2008 07:12 am |
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Just for comparison sake with the next report, I'm posting the 11 p.m. model plotting and 5 day (which is WAY too far out to truly know, no offense to the science, but that's just the way it is). These are both slightly south of the earlier ones, due to Bertha not being very strong, so not being affected by shear and high pressure quite as previously thought.
Attachment: at200802_model.gif (Downloaded 44 times)
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sat Jul 5th, 2008 07:12 am |
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5 day forecast
Attachment: 023515W_sm.gif (Downloaded 44 times)
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admin
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Posted: Sat Jul 5th, 2008 11:05 am |
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breathe deep......and this is a really good time for a practice run on what you have and what you might still need to get ready.
Last edited on Sat Jul 5th, 2008 02:15 pm by admin
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sat Jul 5th, 2008 11:17 am |
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Exactly, admin!
This is the some 5 a.m. 5 day view, bringing Bertha slightly more south again. There are lots of ifs, but being prepared is solid in the wavery world of weather.
From SJ. This isn't the 5 a.m. but the 3:30ish...I'm not sure why it's not updated yet, but we've a long way to go on this one (well, at least until Wednesday!)
Of particular interest...Tropical Storm Bertha continues to churn
out in the tropical Atlantic Ocean...posing only a threat to
shipping lanes at this time. The system should maintain a westward
track for the next day as it propagates around the periphery of
the Atlantic surface high. Guidance suggests an eventual west-
northwesterly track with time...which now places the feature
much closer to the local islands by Wednesday of next week. Will
defer to future forecast packages before increasing the
precipitation on Wednesday until the track of Bertha is more
certain. |
Attachment: 083913W_sm.gif (Downloaded 41 times) Last edited on Sat Jul 5th, 2008 11:19 am by Island Woman MJ
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sat Jul 5th, 2008 11:18 am |
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5 a.m. model runs
Attachment: at200802_model.gif (Downloaded 41 times)
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admin
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Posted: Sat Jul 5th, 2008 02:25 pm |
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Bayberry has just reminded me that my first hurricane in Culebra was named Bertha -- and it was this week in 1996. That was my first experience and I learned that the eye of the storm is not the end of the storm -- with Mr. Gifford at the wheel, several of us, having a horrible time with cabin fever, decided to take a drive about. Because we were in my folks truck, I was in the cab. The folks in the rear of the truck will never forget when the eye left us, and the second half of the storm hit -- Paty Wood and Teva, MJ #1 (yes, there are two of 'em!!!) and Gail (and maybe Eric) were those I remember being stuck in torrential rain and wind on the low road on the far side of the bay. Thank goodness for Mr. Gifford's calm and excellent driving capabilities!!!! Billy T sure had the last laugh on all of us.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sat Jul 5th, 2008 05:13 pm |
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This is a subject that is going on with hurricane history buffs...time of year, path, name...take a look.
Attachment: 739px-Bertha_1996_track.gif (Downloaded 34 times)
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Doug
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Posted: Sat Jul 5th, 2008 05:34 pm |
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Here's a few words about Bertha from our Dead friends:
Link.
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sat Jul 5th, 2008 05:54 pm |
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Um....maybe you want to rephrase that, Doug  We think different in Hurricane Country!
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Diving Debbie
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Posted: Sat Jul 5th, 2008 08:13 pm |
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I think the takeaway from the song is the phrase:
Bertha dont you come around here anymore
Gr8fldude was singing that to TS Bertha just last night. 'course, we'd like for it to come around here in Atlanta in the form of rain, but not at the expense of any coastal areas along its path.
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sat Jul 5th, 2008 09:46 pm |
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The 5 p.m. report has Bertha yet again slightY more south, but still a bit over 300 miles north of us on the Wednesday passing. We'll keep watching (that is the royal we).
Here is the big picture.
Attachment: goesmeteo.jpg (Downloaded 22 times)
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sat Jul 5th, 2008 09:54 pm |
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If you want to wade through this and I'm sure you do, this is the official discussion from 5 p.m. I think it's worth a read...not that it tells anything definitively, but it DOES make some reasons why Bertha is on the track it is on more clear, even if you skip the geek speak.
This graphic is the current 5 day forecast. Just so you know, these are officially given a very wide latitude of error, sometimes up to over 250 miles. Which can be really good...or not so good. Just something to be aware of about weather science.
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008
BERTHA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING. THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 45
KT...WHICH REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
PROJECTED PATH. BERTHA IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF ABOUT 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS...BUT THE SSTS WILL BE INCREASING BY ABOUT ONE DEGREE PER
DAY DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AT
LEAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT PROJECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE
THEREAFTER. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH SHOWED BERTHA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT
3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE HWRF...
GFDL...LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.
BERTHA CONTINUES RACING WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 275/18.
A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN A DEEPER AND STRONGER
BERTHA TURN THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE...THE MODELS THAT DEPICT A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER CYCLONE
CONTINUE TO TRACK IT WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THAT BERTHA WILL REMAIN
DEEP ENOUGH TO DECELERATE DUE TO THE WEAKER RIDGE. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT SIMILAR THEREAFTER...AND IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVER POSE A THREAT
TO ANY LAND AREAS. |
Attachment: 203412W_sm.gif (Downloaded 22 times) Last edited on Sat Jul 5th, 2008 09:54 pm by Island Woman MJ
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bayberry
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Posted: Sat Jul 5th, 2008 10:05 pm |
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| I'm huffing and puffing -- northward....
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sat Jul 5th, 2008 10:19 pm |
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and all of the islands thank you! Huff on!
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sat Jul 5th, 2008 11:24 pm |
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I thought this was an interesting current picture of the Saharan dust flow around Bertha...
Attachment: SAL.jpg (Downloaded 21 times)
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admin
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Posted: Sun Jul 6th, 2008 02:22 am |
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that is a wicked cool graphic. just wish she was further north of you guys!
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