| Author | Post |
|---|
Island Woman MJ
Island Expert
| Joined: | Mon Dec 25th, 2006 |
| Location: | Culebra |
| Posts: | 2171 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
|
Posted: Wed Jul 16th, 2008 11:30 am |
|
Sounds professional, eh??
94L (at least until the 8 a.m. update it's still 94L) is expected to be downgraded and considered a very gusty open tropical wave. This is what one of the pro mets on s2K says, along with the latest models.
Convection has increased, but the lower level circulation is gone today. It's jut an average tropical wave moving into the islands now. It will produce wind gusts as high as 50-60 mph and heavy rainfall as it passes through the islands from this afternoon through tomorrow. Wind shear is too strong for development now.
Attachment: plotsystemmodels_NT_2008_94_atlantic_merc_o1440x1080_555_M1122_M127_M0056_1280x960_640_480.jpg (Downloaded 24 times)
____________________
Salva lo que queda! Save What's Left!
|
Island Woman MJ
Island Expert
| Joined: | Mon Dec 25th, 2006 |
| Location: | Culebra |
| Posts: | 2171 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
|
Posted: Wed Jul 16th, 2008 11:33 am |
|
Our own weather...sitting at Dinghy Dock around 6 p.m. we watched a couple more squalls come through, pretty much as it had been doing all day, though these seemed pretty intense. It's always fun to be up close as these come up the bay - or at least, I and a few like mined folks think so - especially if you are on the correct side of the bar!
Attachment: DinghyDockSquall.jpg (Downloaded 24 times)
____________________
Salva lo que queda! Save What's Left!
|
Island Woman MJ
Island Expert
| Joined: | Mon Dec 25th, 2006 |
| Location: | Culebra |
| Posts: | 2171 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
|
Posted: Wed Jul 16th, 2008 11:35 am |
|
This morning's dawn had some light pinks to it. The sky now is shades of grey, with a very few, and growing fewer, bits of pale blue to the north. If yesterday's rain chances were 30% and today's are 50%...I'd say we could get some rain 
Attachment: Color@dawn.jpg (Downloaded 23 times)
____________________
Salva lo que queda! Save What's Left!
|
Island Woman MJ
Island Expert
| Joined: | Mon Dec 25th, 2006 |
| Location: | Culebra |
| Posts: | 2171 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
|
Posted: Wed Jul 16th, 2008 11:58 am |
|
8 a.m. Tropical Weather Outlook on 94L...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
____________________
Salva lo que queda! Save What's Left!
|
Island Woman MJ
Island Expert
| Joined: | Mon Dec 25th, 2006 |
| Location: | Culebra |
| Posts: | 2171 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
|
Posted: Wed Jul 16th, 2008 12:07 pm |
|
And out of SJ, a drier, gentler perspective!
The active tropical wave located near 55 west early this
morning...continues moving rapidly westward...approaching the
Windward Islands. Latest satellite images shows an increase in
thunderstorms activity in this wave...however it is not as well
organized as it was 36 hours ago. The 06z NAM model passes the most
active weather from this wave south of the local area Thursday
night and Friday. In fact...the model shows that our local area
will stay dry as this system move by. The GFS model...on the
other hand...shows a weaker system...maintaining dry air over the
local area Thursday and Friday. Although the wave is expected to
pass south of the local area...the available moisture from this
wave will combine with daytime heating...and local orographic
effects to produce afternoon showers and thunderstorms...mainly
Thursday afternoon. For Sunday night...it is expected that another
tropical wave...currently over 35 west...will bring active weather
across the local region. Grids were modified accordingly for the passage
of both systems. No hazardous weather is expected with either wave at
this time. |
____________________
Salva lo que queda! Save What's Left!
|
Current time is 08:49 am | |
|
