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Hillman
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Posted: Fri Aug 15th, 2008 11:43 am |
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This tropical wave meandered across Culebra during the night, further South than I thought it would. It came directly East with no Northern movement. I am sure this will be declared a depression once it clears PR, just one of those things NHC seems to do every-now-and-then. Anyhow, It started raining at 11:30 PM and continued through 2:30 AM at a good clip. I figure the wind at 25 mph during the worse of it and we received 3.10 inches of rain as of 6:00 AM this morning. The lightning displays were tremendous, but of no damage that I know of, the electric and telephone utilities remained on throughout! It continues to rain and be heavily overcast. The current radar shows more to come of this system as it slowly moves West.
Attachment: RadarJ.jpg (Downloaded 36 times)
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Hillman
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Posted: Fri Aug 15th, 2008 11:58 am |
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The attached view of today's Sahara Air Layer shows how these tropical systems have blasted away the dry layer compared to previously posted views. This portends badly for us. It allows these systems to strenghen and come directly this way.
Attachment: SaharaLayer.jpg (Downloaded 34 times)
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Hillman
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Posted: Fri Aug 15th, 2008 02:42 pm |
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The showers have abated for now. In fact there is enough blue sky to paint a Dutchman's pants (or something like that!). The newest radar shows the wave to have pulled off to the west more rapidly than it moved last night.
We are standing-by for Invest #93 next.
Last edited on Fri Aug 15th, 2008 02:44 pm by Hillman
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admin
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Posted: Fri Aug 15th, 2008 03:36 pm |
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Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:14 AM EDT on August 15, 2008
Well, I was right on when I dubbed the tropical disturbance 92L "The Joker" earlier this week. I don't recall ever seeing a system that looked this good on satellite imagery not technically qualify as a tropical depression. Last night's Hurricane Hunter mission did find that 92L had a vigorous circulation at mid levels of the atmosphere, but this circulation did not extend down to the surface. Even when the center of 92L was over northwestern Puerto Rico, I couldn't find any winds out of the west on the island, suggesting that 92L did not have a closed surface circulation. However, the latest QuikSCAT pass from 5:52 am EDT shows that 92L had a large area of west winds south of the island. However, this data was not enough for NHC to upgrade 92L to a tropical depression or tropical storm this morning, presumably because the QuikSCAT data was contaminated by rain and not deemed trustworthy.
Satellite intensity estimates at 2 am and 8am EDT today put 92L at tropical storm strength (40 mph), and visible satellite loops show a well-organized system with a steadily increasing area of heavy thunderstorms. Upper-level outflow is fair on three sides. San Juan, PR radar shows the center of 92L is in the Mona Passage, between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The rain areas look disorganized, with little evidence of spiral banding. Radar estimated precipitation (Figure 1) shows up to 5 inches of rain has fallen on some regions of the island, with much higher amounts over neighboring ocean areas.
Figure 1. Latest estimated rainfall from 92L.
The forecast for 92L
Wind shear is a mere 1 knot over 92L, as analyzed by the SHIPS model. An upper-level anticyclone has set up on top of 92L, allowing the air lifted from the surface by the storm's heavy thunderstorms to be efficiently spewed out to the sides, ventilating the storm and promoting even more intense thunderstorm activity. This favorable upper-level wind environment is expected to last at least through Sunday. Beyond then, increasing shear may be a problem for the storm.
The latest (2 am EDT) model runs all foresee a track for 92L very close to the north coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today through Sunday. Heavy rains will be the main threat to these places, with 4-8 inches likely. Isolated higher amounts of up to 12 inches may fall in the mountains, triggering life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
In the longer term, an encounter with the rugged terrain of eastern Cuba is forecast by many of the models on Sunday. Passage over the rough terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba could severely disrupt or even destroy 92L. Once the storm finally emerges and stays over the warm waters of the Bahamas or Florida Straits, the models expect it to intensify quickly into a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane. The eventual strength is highly dependent on the track of 92L, with a longer track over water giving it a greater chance of becoming a hurricane. I think the models are overdoing the intensification of 92L once it does pop off the coast of Cuba. We saw in 2006 that Ernesto popped off the coast of Cuba as a weak tropical storm, and took a full 36 hours to get its act together. Still, 92L may have a much longer time over water than Ernesto had, and if the storm does spend 2 or 3 days over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream off the coast of Florida, the storm could easily intensify into a major hurricane, as the GFDL and HWRF models have been predicting for several days now.
The long range track of 92L is highly uncertain. Take your pick of 8 pm/2 am EDT model runs:
GFDL, HWRF: parallel to the east coast of Florida, 50-100 miles offshore, eventually threatening South Carolina
UKMET: Through South Florida
NOGAPS: Through the Florida Keys, into South Florida
ECMWF: Through the Bahamas and into North Carolina
GFS: Through the Bahamas, then west across central Florida in the Gulf of Mexico
Canadian: Across Cuba and through the Cayman Islands, then north in the Gulf of Mexico
No model is calling for "The Joker" to recurve out to sea, completely missing the U.S.
Links to follow
Puerto Rico radar
Wundermap for Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico weather
Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (93L), near 15N 49W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has gotten better organized this morning. Wind shear has fallen to 10 knots, and is expected to remain below 10 knots the next two days. The system does have a closed circulation at the surface, as seen on last night's QuikSCAT pass. The surface circulation is also apparent on visible satellite loops, as well as a slow increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC has given the reasonable forecast that there is a medium (20-50%) chance that this system will be a tropical depression by Sunday morning. Most of the computer models track this storm well north of the Lesser Antilles Islands, recurving out to sea.
Several of the reliable computer models forecast development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa about 1-3 days from now.
I'll have an update by 5 pm today, when the latest data from the Hurricane Hunters will be available. "The Joker" is certainly worthy of having a full set of advisories issued for it, given is possible impacts, even if it doesn't technically qualify as a tropical depression. For the future, perhaps NHC should consider an extension to their "Special Tropical Disturbance Statement" that includes a set of forecast tracks, marine forecast, discussion, etc.
Jeff Masters
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Hillman
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Posted: Fri Aug 15th, 2008 08:52 pm |
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Well, the PRs survived, lets give this storm a name now:
000
WTNT31 KNHC 152039
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008
...TROPICAL STORM FAY FORMS...SIXTH ATLANTIC STORM OF THE SEASON...
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
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admin
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Posted: Fri Aug 15th, 2008 09:17 pm |
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ever feel like kicking a weatherman? how many storms have mysteriously "formed" over Culebra??? it's a good thing we don't get worried about a little tropical storm here or there.....may all in Fay's path fare well......
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Posted: Sat Aug 16th, 2008 01:08 am |
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Posted by: JeffMasters, 5:27 PM EDT on August 15, 2008
The true nature of the storm I've been calling "The Joker" has been exposed--"the Joker" is really Tropical Storm Fay, the sixth named storm of this busy 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. Fay moved ashore over the eastern Dominican Republic early this afternoon, after pounding Puerto Rico with heavy rains and high winds. I got this report from wunderground member isla2, who lives on the island of Vieques, just off the east coast of Puerto Rico:
I live on Vieques. I just wanted you to know that where I live mid-island (Monte Santo) we got NAILED last night by invest Fay. I cannot imagine it was not a named storm! I have been through a Cat #1 and this was just as bad. It seemed like around 10pm the constant lightning, thunder, sideways rain and strong winds began in earnest and hammered us till around 3 am. {My three dogs were glad to be inside - two vying to be closest to my bed and one hiding under the draped dining room table.} I was very glad I had put up our hurricane shutters!
I suspect that we were hit harder than the radar showed. If anyone had been here they would know that this was no mere Invest!!
Fay may not technically have been a tropical storm earlier today, but this trick of not having a closed surface circulation hid the fact that this storm had the same winds and rain as a tropical storm. Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft found sustained surface winds of 40-50 mph both north and south of the center of Fay this afternoon. Satellite intensity estimates at 2 pm today put Fay at tropical storm strength (40 mph). Despite the fact the center is over land, visible satellite loops show a well-organized system with a steadily increasing area of heavy thunderstorms. Upper-level outflow is fair on three sides, and spiral banding at the low levels is increasing. San Juan, PR radar shows the storm's rains have ended over Puerto Rico, but are hammering the eastern Dominican Republic.
Figure 1. Total estimated rainfall from Fay.
Links to follow
Wundermap for Hispaniola
The forecast for Fay
Wind shear is a low 10 knots over Fay, and is expected to remain below 10 knots for the remainder of Fay's life. An upper-level anticyclone has set up on top of Fay, allowing the air lifted from the surface by the storm's heavy thunderstorms to be efficiently spewed out to the sides, ventilating the storm and promoting even more intense thunderstorm activity. This favorable upper-level wind environment is expected to last at least through Sunday.
The latest (8 am EDT) model runs have shifted the track for Fay considerably further west, maximizing the time Fay will spend over land. Fay will be passing over the high mountains of both Hispaniola and Cuba, which may force sudden jumps in the center position as the storm reforms closer to its heaviest thunderstorm activity. As a result, the track forecast for Fay has an unusually high level of uncertainty. "The Joker" will continue to keep us guessing!
If Fay does hit South Florida, the storm is likely to be a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane, since it will not have enough time over water to reorganize much. I think the models are overdoing the intensification of Fay once it does pop off the coast of Cuba. We saw in 2006 that Ernesto popped off the coast of Cuba as a weak tropical storm, and took a full 36 hours to get its act together. If Fay misses South Florida and veers either to the east or west of the Peninsula, the storm could easily reach Category 2 status before a potential landfall either on the Gulf Coast or in North Carolina/South Carolina.
I'll have an update Saturday by noon EDT.
Jeff Masters
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and never regret anything that made you smile!
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admin
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Posted: Sat Aug 16th, 2008 11:03 am |
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LOL....who knows how long Miss Island Woman was planning on being in Hurricane Alley 2 (aka Florida).........
Attachment: Picture 13.png (Downloaded 16 times)
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and never regret anything that made you smile!
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Hillman
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Posted: Sat Aug 16th, 2008 11:32 am |
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The rainfall amount from 6AM to 10:30 yesterday morning was 0.30 inches and should be added to the total for Wave/Fay to be 3.40 inches of rainfall. This amount caused the dry creek beds to run.
Attachment: DryCreek4.JPG (Downloaded 16 times)
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