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admin
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Posted: Mon Aug 18th, 2008 07:25 pm |
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[/code][code]A low pressure area producing scattered showers and thunderstorms is
located about 725 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
This system has continued to become better organized today and
additional development is possible during the next 48 hours as
it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph. |
Attachment: Picture 2.png (Downloaded 39 times) Last edited on Mon Aug 18th, 2008 07:28 pm by admin
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admin
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Posted: Mon Aug 18th, 2008 07:29 pm |
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i predict that Hillman and I (and any others who care to jump in and help) and going to be busy weather bees during Island Woman's vacation. I'm going to tell her next year no vacation until after H season is done......
Attachment: Picture 1.png (Downloaded 39 times)
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admin
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Posted: Mon Aug 18th, 2008 08:11 pm |
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Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:34 PM EDT on August 18, 2008
Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 13N 36W, about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has gotten better organized this afternoon. This system (94L) shows signs of rotation on visible satellite imagery, and heavy thunderstorm activity has steadily increased near the center in recent hours. Wind shear is a low 5-10 knots over this disturbance, and is expected to drop below 5 knots Tuesday. The storm is over warm 28°C waters, and is in a moist environment, so continued development is likely. NHC is currently giving this system a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday afternoon. This storm is expected to track west-northwest and be near the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday. Wind shear is forecast to remain below 15 knots for the next five days, which will favor development. However, there is a large area of dry air and Saharan dust to the northwest of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery, and this will probably begin to interfere with 94L's development by Wednesday. The GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS models all develop 94L into a tropical storm that moves just north of the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday.
I'll have updates throughout the day.
Jeff Masters
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admin
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Posted: Tue Aug 19th, 2008 04:44 pm |
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Those of us stuck on the East Coast are praying that the models for Fay going back out into the Atlantic and reforming are wrong.....
here is Jeff Masters from this morning....
Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 13N 38W, about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. This system (94L) shows signs of rotation on visible satellite imagery. Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over this disturbance, and is expected to remain about 10 knots through Wednesday. The storm is over warm 28°C waters. Given these moderately favorable conditions, NHC is giving this system a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. The storm is expected to track west-northwest and be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Friday night. Wind shear is forecast to increase to 20-30 knots over the storm Thursday-Saturday, which should halt any development. There is a large area of dry air and Saharan dust to the northwest of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. This dry air is already interfering with development, and likely will continue to do so over the next three days. The GFDL and HWRF develop 94L into a weak tropical storm, but none to the other models develop it. I don't expect this storm will be a problem for the Lesser Antilles.
The next blog will be Wednesday, and may not be until the afternoon. I'm probably going to take the day off and let one of the other wunderground meteorologists fill in for me. It's time to take a break from "The Joker"!
Jeff Masters
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admin
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Posted: Thu Aug 21st, 2008 10:45 am |
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I really hate these lines......
Forecaster Admin
Shower activity with an area of low pressure located about 1000
miles east of the Windward Islands remains disorganized...and any
development of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
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$$
Forecaster Franklin
[code][/code]
Attachment: Picture 1.png (Downloaded 16 times)
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admin
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Posted: Thu Aug 21st, 2008 04:32 pm |
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A tropical wave (94L) 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Island remains disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no closed circulation, but did show a pronounced wind shift associated with the storm, and top winds of 30 mph. Visible satellite imagery shows a modest clump of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over this disturbance, and there is dry air surrounding it on all sides. Given these rather unfavorable conditions, NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. Once 94L moves into the eastern Caribbean on Sunday, the atmosphere will moisten, wind shear will fall, and development will be more likely. The ECMWF model does develop 94L into a tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean, but none of the other models develop the storm.
The next blog will be Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
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Life is short. Break the rules, Forgive quickly, Love truly, Laugh uncontrollably,
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