 |
| Author | Post |
|---|
admin
Administrator
| Joined: | Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | 2648 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
|
Posted: Mon Aug 18th, 2008 07:54 pm |
|
Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:34 PM EDT on August 18, 2008
Tropical Storm Fay
is pounding the Florida Keys with high winds and heavy rain, as it
churns north-northwestward towards a landfall in Southwest Florida.
Winds at the Sand Point Buoy near Key West were sustained at 56 mph last hour, and the center of Fay passed over Key West at about 3:30 pm EDT. Sombrero Key
buoy, at an elevation of 159 feet, reported sustained winds of 60 mph
last hour. The latest Hurricane Hunter missions have found a large
areas of 50-60 mph winds in the heaviest thunderstorms. However, the
pressure has not fallen significantly, and was 1001 mb at 3pm.
From wunderground member keeywester:
Wow...Fay
is really hitting us hard right now (1:52 p.m.) I'm guessing we are
sustained at close to 50 with higher gusts out of the ENE. I have water
spilling in under my east facing door on the third floor. We are in a
really intense band and visibility is really low. Just thought I'd give
you a quick update.
Dan Hogberg in Key West (Sunset Marina Condos)
Indeed,
radar estimated rainfall (Figure 1) shows that about 5 inches of rain
fell in Key West in just a few hours this afternoon. Long-range radar out of Key West
shows that Fay is beginning to build an eyewall, which is about 40%
complete. Fay's spiral bands are steadily organizing and growing more
plentiful. Visible satellite loops
show a lack of heavy thunderstorm activity and upper-level outflow on
Fay's west side, where wind shear from an upper-level low to the west
is interfering with the storm. Wind shear of 10-15 knots is expected to
continue over Fay until the storm makes landfall on the southwest coast
of Florida. This amount of wind shear usually means only modest
intensification can occur, and Fay is unlikely to make it to Category 2
strength (96 mph or greater).
Figure 1. Latest radar-estimated precipitation for Fay.
Impact on the Caribbean islands
Fay dumped up to 8 inches of rain in southern Haiti, the southern Dominican Republic, and central Cuba, according to satellite estimates.
The resulting flooding has probably killed at least 36 people. Thirty
of those deaths came in Haiti when an overloaded bus attempted to cross
a flooded river and flipped. Flooding from Fay also killed two people
in Jamaica and four people in the Dominican Republic.
Impact on the west coast of Florida
The
west coast of Florida will take the full brunt of Fay's fury early
Tuesday morning. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the computer
models have finally come into agreement on a landfall, with their 8 am
EDT runs. The consensus is that landfall will be in Southwest Florida,
between Marco Island and Fort Myers. Marco Island is my guess of a
landfall location given the trend of Fay to track to the right of the
forecast. With Fay's expected track nearly parallel to the shore,
though, a slight deviation in the path will result in a large change in
where the eye comes ashore. Storm surge will be a major concern to the
region just to the right of where the center comes ashore. For the
Naples region, a Category 1 hurricane can generate storm surges of 4-8
feet (Figure 2). Both the GFDL and HWRF models are forecasting a
Category 1 hurricane with winds of 80-90 mph at landfall. Fay does not
have time to intensify into a Category 3 hurricane before a landfall in
Southwest Florida. If Fay follows a track further north and makes
landfall near Tampa Bay, as the NOGAPS model predicts, there is a 10%
chance it couuld intensify into a Category 3 hurricane.
South Carolina? New Orleans? Where will Fay go next?
The computer models
continue to show an unusual amount of disagreement about the longer
term path of Fay. The official NHC forecast follows the GFDL and HWRF
models, which takes Fay northwards through the Florida Peninsula.
However, the latest runs of these models now predict Fay will emerge
off the east coast of Florida, restrengthen a bit to a 60-70 mph
tropical storm, then make landfall Wednesday along the Georgia/South
Carolina coast. This solution assumes that the trough of low pressure
turning Fay northward will be strong and enough and be moving slow
enough to pull Fay all the way northwards into the U.S.
A weaker
trough is predicted by the rest of the models, which foresee that Fay
will stall over central Florida or the adjacent Atlantic Ocean on
Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure will then build in, forcing Fay
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A second landfall in the
Florida Panhandle or in Louisiana near New Orleans is then a
possibility. Since more and more of the models are trending this way, I
believe this solution has an equal chance of being correct. "The Joker"
may be around to trouble us for another full week or longer.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the Florida Keys
Key West, FL weather
Naples, FL weather
Fort Myers, FL weather
Miami, FL weather
Figure 2.
Worst-probable storm tide inundation (inundation from storm surge plus
an adjustment for the mean high tide that occurs in the Naples area).
The colors scale to various Category hurricanes--1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. The
map was compiled using data from NOAA's SLOSH model. Image credit: floridadisaster.org.
Figure 3.
Worst-probable storm tide inundation (inundation from storm surge plus
adjustment for the mean high tide that occurs in the Fort Myers area).
The colors scale to various Category hurricanes--1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. The
map was compiled using data from NOAA's SLOSH model. Image credit: floridadisaster.org.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A
tropical wave near 13N 36W, about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands, has gotten better organized this afternoon. This system (94L) shows signs of rotation on visible satellite imagery,
and heavy thunderstorm activity has steadily increased near the center
in recent hours. Wind shear is a low 5-10 knots over this disturbance,
and is expected to drop below 5 knots Tuesday. The storm is over warm
28°C waters, and is in a moist environment, so continued development is
likely. NHC is currently giving this system a medium (20%-50% chance)
of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday afternoon. This
storm is expected to track west-northwest and be near the Lesser
Antilles Islands on Saturday. Wind shear is forecast to remain below 15
knots for the next five days, which will favor development. However,
there is a large area of dry air and Saharan dust to the northwest of
the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery,
and this will probably begin to interfere with 94L's development by
Wednesday. The GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS models all develop 94L into a
tropical storm that moves just north of the Lesser Antilles Islands by
Saturday.
I'll have updates throughout the day.
Jeff Masters
____________________
Life is short. Break the rules, Forgive quickly, Love truly, Laugh uncontrollably,
and never regret anything that made you smile!
|
Current time is 01:22 pm | |
|
|
|
|
