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Posted: Tue Aug 26th, 2008 11:35 pm |
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Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:15 PM EDT on August 26, 2008
Disturbance 95L east-northeast of Puerto Rico
A tropical disturbance (95L) near 21N 57W, a few hundred miles east-northeast of Puerto Rico, remains weak and disorganized. However, if this disturbance survives the next 24 hours, it could develop and be a problem for Bermuda this weekend and the U.S. East Coast next week. Visible satellite loops show that wind shear is playing havoc with this system--strong upper-level winds from the west are allowing only a small amount of heavy thunderstorms to cling to the southeast side of the center of circulation. The surface circulation appears to be weakening, and the wind shear may be able to destroy 95L today. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over 95L today, but is forecast to decrease to zero by Thursday and remain below 15 knots for most of the remainder of the week. NHC is giving 95L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Most of the models develop 95L, foreseeing a northwest track and a threat to Bermuda 5-7 days from now. The latest (8 am EDT) GFDL model run develops 95L into a strong Category 2 hurricane that passes very close to Bermuda on Saturday. The HWRF model is less aggressive, predicting a 55 mph tropical storm passing near Bermuda on Sunday. The NOGAPS and the GFS are similar, and predict 95L will stall near Bermuda. The GFS foresees that 95L will wander westward for a few days after encountering Bermuda, then scoot northwards along the U.S. East Coast, passing very close to North Carolina and New England. The ECMWF model takes 95L near Bermuda, then northwards out to sea.
Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the computer models forecast the development of two more tropical waves between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the coming week, and it is possible we will have three or four simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic a week from now (Figure 3).
Figure 3. The ECMWF 8-day forecast valid Tuesday, September 2 at 8 pm EDT. The ECMWF model was initialized at 00 GMT Tuesday, August 26, 2008. The model is predicting a parade of four tropical storms or hurricanes stretched out across the Atlantic: Gustav, 95L, and the as yet hypothetical 96L and 97L. Image credit: ECMWF.
My next blog will be Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
____________________
Life is short. Break the rules, Forgive quickly, Love truly, Laugh uncontrollably,
and never regret anything that made you smile!
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