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admin
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Posted: Fri Sep 19th, 2008 02:35 pm |
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so apparently our fearless Weather "Island" Woman has fallen into the weeds surrounding her house, and I need to continue to do the weather reporting from beautiful COLD (33 degrees this morning) Maine......or maybe she's out hunting replacement mangos.
93 has formed.....
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on September 19, 2008 [/code]For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
[code]Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Lesser Antilles...the
adjacent Caribbean and Atlantic waters are associated with a
westward moving tropical wave. Upper-level winds have become less
favorable for development.
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Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
Attachment: Picture 3.png (Downloaded 76 times)
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admin
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Posted: Fri Sep 19th, 2008 09:44 pm |
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ok Island Woman.....where are you???
heads up everyone.....this one is not shaping up well for Culebra.....
and I love the news about our first Nor'easter.....crazy times and crazy weather.
Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:30 PM EDT on September 19, 2008 Heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing over the Lesser Antilles Islands today in association with tropical disturbance 93L. Visible satellite loops indicate that a closed circulation may be developing at middle levels of the atmosphere, near 14N 64W. Additional slow development appears likely, and I expect 93L's mid-level circulation will work its way down to the surface by Sunday. Slowing down this process will be the presence 15-20 knots of wind shear, which is marginal for development. Wind shear is forecast by the GFS model to remain 15-20 knots for the next five days, but other models are forecasting wind shear in the moderate range, 10-15 knots. The NHC is now giving 93L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday, and I put these odds a bit higher, in the 30%-60% range. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L, and it is possible that given its current rather fragile state, high wind shear will prevent development. I give a 60% chance that 93L will eventually develop into a tropical depression.
Most of the heavy rains from 93L are well to the east of the center, and expect heavy rains of 3-6" to affect Puerto Rico Saturday through Sunday. By Sunday, heavy rain will spread to the Dominican Republic and Haiti, potentially causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Steering patterns will very likely prevent 93L from recurving out to sea, and I expect the storm will affect Jamaica, Cuba, and possibly the southeastern Bahamas beginning on Monday night. It is uncertain at this time whether 93L will retain its current west-northwest motion and cross into the Bahamas (as forecast by the HWRF model), or be forced more to the west on Sunday, and remain in the Caribbean (as forecast by the Canadian model).
Figure 1. Current satellite image of 93L.
Possible development off the coast of Africa
Another possible place for development is off the coast of Africa. A strong tropical wave with some solid heavy thunderstorm activity is emerging from the coast today, and the GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting this system will develop into a tropical depression by early next week. Wind shear is predicted to be in the moderate range, 10-20 knots.
Many of the models are also predicting development of a strong storm off the coast of North Carolina about six to seven days from now, but this will probably be extratropical--the season's first Nor'easter.
I'll have an update Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
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Hillman
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Posted: Sat Sep 20th, 2008 06:52 pm |
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The first of the outer bands of 93? It sure is dumping a ton of rain right now!
Attachment: radar.jpg (Downloaded 63 times)
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sat Sep 20th, 2008 08:22 pm |
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Ok ok, I'm here. For most of the day (and all of last night and all of the night before) I've not had access. A good portion of today phones were out all over the island. Apparently some *repairs* are being made. Then when the weather hit the fan I was in a meeting of the Coastal Zone Management. Very surprised to have my name called on to speak...next time I'm going to be SURE what the heck I'm signing. Interesting meeting, but we ducked out early as it was freezing AC in there and Linda (my friend and my ride) is sick with the cold that it seems everyone on Culebra has gotten (knockin' on wood, not me). So I'm doing a fast and dirty catch up here. Just so you know, listening to the weather radio does NOT help much.
As Hillman said, we got slammed with rain. I could hear the thunder over my chattering teeth in the multi use building. But right now it's not raining and is very very still. My camera is back on the wonk, so I can't take a pic of the really pretty beautiful green reflections of the hills on the almost flat calm water, but you get the idea.
Here is the TWO from 2 p.m. Looking at the radar on loop it's kind of hard to tell what is going on, but the weather weenie site I check on says we're going to get the wet side of this...so I guess they are right! Luckily, Mark finished painting the front of the cart today. I came home to it being close to shredded with all the rain we've had.
ABNT20 KNHC 201743
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY. WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY.
Last edited on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 08:25 pm by Island Woman MJ
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sat Sep 20th, 2008 08:30 pm |
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oh, and by the way, not weather related but certainly Culebra related...I was in town this morning and met up with Teresa (who also spoke at the meeting, but she planned to!) who offered to give me a ride home if I'd wait a bit. I saw Monika and did the how was your trip, and of course I was whining about my freezer and lost mangos and she says, hey, I've got something for you, come here. We walk to the freezer area and she told me they were getting rid of three freezers (not pretty, but they work, so if anyone needs a BIG chest freezer, go to Mamacita's and just ask), and that there was something I might want that Zach wasn't going to use but she couldn't bear to throw out. Six small bags of mango chunks!!! Have I mentioned lately that life is good??? I LOVE CULEBRA! So while it's not the gallons I lost, it's at least a good batch worth. So if anyone wants to buy mango hot sauce, once I get it cooked up...it won't be local mangos, but it will be good 
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admin
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Posted: Sat Sep 20th, 2008 08:43 pm |
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 on the cart, camera and Linda's cold
 on zach's mangos and freezer
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sat Sep 20th, 2008 09:32 pm |
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After a bit of banging and hoping, the camera is working again...for now. And the light, while not as mellow as before, was still decent
p.s. no frownies on the cart, it looks great, just the yearly painting done a bit early...
Attachment: GreenGreen.jpg (Downloaded 58 times) Last edited on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 09:33 pm by Island Woman MJ
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beachbound
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 03:25 am |
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We are here, we are wet, we lost use of cell phones from being caught in the rain on Zoni today-------------BUT MJ's cart looks GREAT, we got to hear Wiki play tonight and we are on CULEBRA!! Life is good!!
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 03:34 am |
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and a serious jolt of sunshine to the island you both are!!
We got pounded with rain a couple of hours ago. Tomorrow, recon will be flying into the system to see what is actually going on, with many thinking there could be a TD or TS coming out of 93L.
At the moment we are in the relative clear but not for long. I had dozed off and am now wide awake; hopefully a giant's lullaby of rain on the roof will bring sleep back.
The present models keep the path of 93 to our west, but as we all know well, a line is not a good way to mark the impact of a system. It doesn't look good for Hispanola again, especially Haiti, which Nature seems to be trying to drown this season. Already there has been a death from this system in St. Vincent, where a stone wall fell and crushed a woman in her car (report from stormcarib.com). Be safe!
Attachment: at200893_model.gif (Downloaded 50 times)
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 03:35 am |
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Current pic of us
Attachment: WUNIDS_map.gif (Downloaded 50 times)
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bayberry
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 10:21 am |
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| And you sure look rather wet this morning.... After Ike's treatment of Galveston I sure hope someone suggested that there be NO coastal development on Culebra....
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 11:02 am |
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We're very wet. The rain just slacked a bit after hard stuff for a very long time. But that was so Linda could bring me some books while she was out walking her pup!
No doubt that suggestion was made, Bayberry, but as it was all in Spanish and I left early, I don't know how that went, though it was obviously in discussion. I do know there are going to be follow up meetings though.
Here we are...really, look hard and you can find us!
Attachment: WUNIDS_map-1.gif (Downloaded 50 times)
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 11:06 am |
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This is the latest TWO. Very easy to understand, it's been raining, it's going to rain more.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST SUN SEP 21 2008
.DISCUSSION...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DETECTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AFFECTED
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...PRODUCING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AND FOR THAT REASON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FA WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING VERY SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND TOMORROW...MAINTAINING
A WET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA. LATEST PROJECTIONS OF THE GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FA UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY.
ACCORDINGLY TO THE LATEST TWO ISSUED BY NHC...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO THROUGH TONIGHT.
THUS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 11:14 am |
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Hopefully Hillman will post some pictures...I just waded through the sucking mud of my yard to take some shots of the bay and the camera has gone down again. AIIIIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
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admin
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 11:36 am |
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so we can blame this on Beachbound and NOT Island Woman!!
hillman, we'd love to see pictures....
Island Woman......send me an e-mail with your camera issues.....maybe I can help.....
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 12:08 pm |
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The rain has stopped, for now. There is a slight breeze (down here). And the bay is brown as far as my eye can see
And there is NO blame! Much as I'd like to blame weather on someone so I could do something about it....ain't happening. Unless you want to blame the Mother, and I wouldn't touch that!
Last edited on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 12:11 pm by Island Woman MJ
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 02:51 pm |
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This came in at 10:30
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.
INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 05:59 pm |
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The 2 p.m. TWO. The wind is picking up a lot, whipping the trees around, so on the hills it must be lots more intense. There is rain but not tons of it...but I think it's on the way.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON BOTH ITS
STRUCTURE AND STRENGTH. A WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLIER TODAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY.
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR PRODUCTS FROM THEIR
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY...WHICH
COULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS AND WATCHES.
Attachment: goes.jpg (Downloaded 37 times)
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beachbound
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 06:31 pm |
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| Thanks for the update MJ! It looks like we are going to be finding alternate means of entertainment for a while. I certainly hope I didn't bring this down here, we had pretty nice weather at home before we left, so at least it didn't follow us. Anyone heard from Diving Debbie? I wasn't sure about the ferry or plane status and their ability to get to the island. Keep coming with the great info MJ!
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 06:37 pm |
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psssttt...beachbound...you are on a tiny island, with a bar right outside your door...there are no children with you. Hopefully you will figure out alternative entertainment with these oh so subtle hints! p.s. weather does not follow people, it is far beyond human involvement...well, unless you are Moses, but I knew Moses and you are not him.
I haven't heard anything from Debbie yet, but I'd bet the ferry ain't runnin' and I haven't heard any planes all day (doesn't mean none flew but I've not heard any and I usually do).
Last edited on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 06:38 pm by Island Woman MJ
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