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admin
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 09:47 pm |
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i'm sure by now beachbound has figured out the side benefits of a tropical system....lots of company at the local watering holes!!!
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 09:55 pm |
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Oops, I fell asleep there for a bit. It's a neither day nor night feeling, dusk type light with the rain still falling and not much to do so sleep was good. Here is the 4:30 update.
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO INDICATE THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 30 TO 35 MPH SURFACE WINDS IN
SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE DATA
SHOW THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U. S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES.
Attachment: WUNIDS_map.gif (Downloaded 53 times) Last edited on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 09:58 pm by Island Woman MJ
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 10:03 pm |
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The wind had died down quite a bit...for a while there we were getting 30 + mph gusts and now we're down to 15 mph, with 20 mph gusts (this is from Al's Hilltop weather station, here on Culebra). It seems to be picking up a little bit at the moment and if you could see the loop you'd see it moving north, so we're in the soup for awhile longer here, even though the update has it over central and western PR, as far as the *center* goes.
Except for all of the nasty stuff too much water can do, we're fortunate to not have bad winds to go with it. So far, so good on that front.
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admin
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 10:54 pm |
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i just got a message from our fearless weather goddess....the storm is getting pretty rough, and she expects to be offline for a while, so I'll do my best from here....hopefully she or Hillman will be able to check in soon...it looks like Culebra is just staying on the fringes...but we all need to do some prayers and dancing to have this system move past us!
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO INDICATE THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 30 TO 35 MPH SURFACE WINDS IN
SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE DATA
SHOW THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U. S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME |
Attachment: Picture 8.png (Downloaded 54 times)
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admin
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 10:57 pm |
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This just in from Island Woman....
It's really pouring again and the wind has picked up. We go offline about every three minutes...
Just wanted to let you know if there is a big long silence...it's because I'm silenced!
Oops, offline again...I'll keep trying
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 11:03 pm |
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The rain has gone from heavy to barely dripping, winds down again. A lull, methinks, according to the radar, but we're back on line again for now. I'll update as I can.
The most important thing is that the power doesn't go out - I'm baking a potato and roasting garlic and that is so difficult to do on the propane stovetop! Priorities; I say, keep 'em sharp!
Oops, winds not down again...it's pitch dark out now but I can hear the whipping of trees starting up.
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sun Sep 21st, 2008 11:50 pm |
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The 8 p.m. TWO has just come out. But since it is basically a repeat (could become a TD, lots of rain, watch out, etc etc) I'm going to pass on it. Right now SJ is getting what we got with the lightning, thunder and big gusts of wind...up until now they had a pretty decent day. Seems hard to believe, but it also verifies why so very very often we get a weather prediction out of San Juan which has absolutely no bearing on Culebra.
Right now I barely can hear the dripping of water off the leaves. The wind (down here) has subsided as well. For sure, there is more to come but I'm enjoying the lull.
The models, which did show 93L going to our (PR) west shifted back to the right, obviously, but that usually doesn't happen. This system is pretty different that way, coming from the south to the north. The trend is still north or slightly northwestwardly. All I know for sure is it's moving v e r y slowly and feels more like winter, with the temps in the mid to high 70's.
Which is why that baked potato and roasted garlic are going to be sooooo good!!!
This isn't really MY potatoes and garlic (I only have one and the garlic is in foil, which I advise - and rats!!!! I'm growing rosemary, why didn't I think of that? maybe because it was slamming rain when I put them in), but since the camera is...*sob* still not working, it's darn close! Thank goodness for legal internet stealing! It comes from http://p7.hostingprod.com/.
Attachment: Baked Potatoes 450w.jpg (Downloaded 51 times) Last edited on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 11:51 pm by Island Woman MJ
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 02:01 am |
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We've been out of the lull of no rain for about...over an hour now. Getting lashes of rain. And yes, since I know it is something you've all been on pins and needles about, the potato and roasted garlic were awesome! The rain started while I was mashing everything up...yum yum yum!
I can't even imagine how things are fairing on the big island, where the potential for landslides and flooding are huge and no doubt going to happen if they are getting anything close to what we have going on here.
This won't be over anytime soon, though even as I type we're going into a more quiet rain. I'm going back to bed and book and will check in for the next update if I'm awake. Hopefully, I won't be!
Current conditions;
Attachment: WUNIDS_map-1.gif (Downloaded 45 times)
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beachbound
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Posted: Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 05:12 am |
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admin wrote: i'm sure by now beachbound has figured out the side benefits of a tropical system....lots of company at the local watering holes!!!
 Check!!!
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admin
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Posted: Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 11:10 am |
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if you were typing at 1:15 a.m. during a storm, that means you were drinkin' and typin'!!!!!
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 01:34 pm |
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What it means is...awake asleep reading internet asleep awake reading. Sometimes it rains a little. Sometimes it's raining a lot. Right now it's barely raining as opposed to the heavy rain around dawn. I have been in a weird zombie state for about two hours...semi awake but not able to really move! Sleeping wasn't exactly sound.
Anyway.People have died in PR, flooding is in the history record breaking levels, not good. The system, on top of that, has stalled. Though I can tell it has shifted overnight, now covering the whole of us & the big island.
Here is the 8 a.m. TWO
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PUERTO RICO
AND ADJACENT WATERS CONTINUES TO LACK A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO TUESDAY...AND THESE RAINS HAVE
ALREADY PRODUCED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. INTERESTS IN
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.
The local radar is down, incredible it lasted as long as it did, I was still looking at it around 4 a.m. But luckily we have MORE!
Attachment: avn-l.jpg (Downloaded 36 times)
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 01:41 pm |
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Info taken from the s2k site:
Patillas (located in the SE corner of the big island, reports 26, that's TWENTY SIX inches of rain so far. Also, here is an image of the first visible this morning, close up.
Attachment: 2008AL93_1KMSRVIS_200809221115.GIF (Downloaded 36 times) Last edited on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 01:42 pm by Island Woman MJ
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 01:46 pm |
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From Jeff Masters blog:
Serious flooding in Puerto Rico from 93L
Tropical disturbance 93L continues to dump torrential rains of up to four inches per hour on Puerto Rico. Storm total rainfall amounts have exceeded 20 to 30 inches in parts of southeast Puerto Rico where rivers are up to 14 feet above flood stage. Flash floods and mudslides have been reported across the east, southeast, and southeastern interior Puerto Rico. An additional 10-20 inches of rain is expected over western and southwestern Puerto Rico today, due to the very slow motion of 93L. The rains from 93L are the most that have fallen on the island since Hurricane Georges ten years ago (see below).
Infrared satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity remains intense, and upper-level outflow is now established on the north and east sides of 93L. Puerto Rico radar was down this morning, but Dominican Republic radar shows evidence of spiral bands beginning to form around the center, which appears to have pushed over the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, near Punta Cana. Winds have now shifted to westerly there, and this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large area of westerly winds to the south of Hispaniola, so 93L may have developed enough of a surface circulation to be classified as a tropical depression today. Wind shear is moderate, about 10-20 knots.
Expect heavy rains of up to 10-20 inches to affect Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic today through Tuesday from this slow moving storm. Heavy rains will also spread over eastern portions of the Dominican Republic Monday, potentially causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in mountainous regions. Since most of 93L's heavy thunderstorm activity is on its east side, it currently appears that Haiti and the Bahamas will escape dangerous heavy rains from this storm.
The intensity forecast
Wind shear is forecast to remain 10-20 knots over the next five days, and most of the reliable forecast models predict that 93L will develop into a tropical storm by Tuesday. The GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will strengthen into a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Thursday. However, there will be high wind shear very close to 93L for the next five days, and the storm may struggle at times with this high shear. Water temperatures are a warm 29°C and ocean heat content will be moderate over the next five days. The NHC is giving 93L a high (>50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate 93L Monday afternoon.
The track forecast
The models agree on a slow west-northwesterly motion for 93L today, and passage over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola may significantly disrupt the storm. By Tuesday, 93L is expected to turn north-northwest and head towards North Carolina. A major complicating factor in the long-range track forecast is the expected development of an extratropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. This low could bring hostile wind shear over 93L, weakening it, and potentially converting it into a subtropical storm. The two storms may rotate cyclonically around a common center (the Fujiwhara effect), sending the extratropical low west-southwestward into the Southeast U.S., and 93L northwestwards towards North Carolina. This is the solution of the 06Z (2 am EDT) GFDL and HWRF model runs, which both take 93L into New Jersey on Friday night as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. The NOGAPS and UKMET models predict that 93L will absorb the energy that would have gone into creating the extratropical low. This might convert 93L into a hybrid subtropical storm that would affect the coast of North and South Carolina late this week with sustained winds in the 50-60 mph range. I don't have a good feel for what will happen in this complicated situation, but it currently appears that coastal North Carolina may get tropical storm force winds from the extratropical storm beginning as early as Wednesday night. Residents along the entire U.S. East Coast from Georgia to Maine should anticipate the possibility of a strong tropical tropical storm affecting them late this week.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It's all about sharing.
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admin
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Posted: Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 01:49 pm |
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aaarrrrggggghhhhh. I'm canceling your lobster bisque order.
we've been watching this area for a few days.....up in these parts, this time of the year, they're known as Nor'easters (not tropical storms), and they are never fun......
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admin
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Posted: Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 02:30 pm |
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all kidding aside, it didn't occur to me that two systems might be meeting up to come up the coast at us, but that seems to be what is forecast.....and that is not good for us.....these September storms can be pretty wild. Our economy is bad enough.....and this will put an end to our fall season.....as everyone will pull the boats and leave them up for the winter.....
anyone want to buy some art?
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 11:38 am |
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I just got a call from Vieques asking if my DSL was working as they are in a cats & dogs rain. According to the radar, there is a big bird beak on 93L, swinging up our way. So...close your windows, it's starting right....now!
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 11:47 am |
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Radar image:
Attachment: WUNIDS_map.gif (Downloaded 22 times)
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 11:49 am |
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Bird beak image:
Attachment: avn-l.jpg (Downloaded 21 times)
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 12:10 pm |
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Hopefully this is going to be fast as well as furious. The temp has dropped 4 degrees in about 10 minutes but this system is skipping right along. Hope Debbie and Lewis get out when they planned, but if not, I'm pretty sure planes will be flying later on 
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 02:27 pm |
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Ok kids, I thinks it's safe to go back in the water now! Hopefully this will be the end of 93L for us. We're back to absolute calm here and the temp has already come back up 3 degrees with more heat to come, no doubt. A strange last hit from a oddly moving system.
And yes, it's as clear below us as it looks. For now.
Attachment: WUNIDS_map.gif (Downloaded 17 times)
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