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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Mon Oct 27th, 2008 06:36 pm |
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWARTAttachment: goesmeteo.jpg (Downloaded 81 times)
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Mon Oct 27th, 2008 06:37 pm |
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Yellow is good. Let's keep it yellow!
Attachment: two_atl.gif (Downloaded 83 times)
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Posted: Mon Oct 27th, 2008 06:45 pm |
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big sigh
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Mon Oct 27th, 2008 06:48 pm |
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Here...sigh some more.
It's 92L and here are the models...
Attachment: at200892_model.gif (Downloaded 80 times)
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Mon Oct 27th, 2008 06:55 pm |
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and just in case you thought, wow, I wasn't paying attention...this came up pretty fast. Here is the opening of Jeff Masters' blog around 11 this morning.
The tropical Atlantic remains quiet today. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of our reliable models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. I'll have a full analysis of what the rest of the hurricane season might bring on Friday. I do think we have one more storm coming this year [he is referring to an Internet storm, the main subject of the blog].
Another model through google I've heard about but not seen until today
Attachment: GoogleEarth_Image92L.jpg (Downloaded 77 times)
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Posted: Mon Oct 27th, 2008 06:57 pm |
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big sigh with the "F" word after it.
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Mon Oct 27th, 2008 08:46 pm |
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This is from a pro met off of Storm 2K...I find his lack of optimism quite hopeful!
"I'm not very optimistic on 92L's chances for development until it can manage to push westward past the TUTT axis to near the Windward and Leeward Islands. This is likely to happen by late this week or the weekend. The NOGAPS, UKMET and ECMWF, suggest it will continue westward, whereas the GFS shows little westward progression and tangles it up in the TUTT.
The unfavorable MJO over the next week or two also is another reason to be conservative on development chances."
Last edited on Mon Oct 27th, 2008 08:46 pm by Island Woman MJ
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Tue Oct 28th, 2008 01:31 am |
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Sheesh, I had a whole post here and it got lost. Anyway. I am running late. Packing up to go home after 3 weeks housesitting, watching my last bit of television (and trust me, as addicted as I am while in front of one, the minute I'm not, it's over...wish I could deal with smoking like that). And just so you don't worry, I was watching a show called How Did That Get on My Plate about jalepeno peppers...weirdly, when I was on the road in NC, I SAW the truck from the farm that was featured in the show and looked it up when I got home (hey, it was covered with hot peppers, how could I not follow up?). Pretty cool stuff...ok, pretty hot stuff. I'm only slightly having farm envy.
The outlook for us concerning 92L is pretty good as far as this not doing much, but still worth keeping a corner eye on. The fat lady hasn't sung yet.
From another pro met posting on S2K:
"Development chances look low. NHC says <20%. That actual number is probably closer to 1-2%. Yeah, it's less than 20%. Plenty of shear in its path and no organization. Just scattered convection as the wave interacts with an upper trof."
From the 8 p.m TWO (we got used to the 5 during Omar, but that is an active system 'special edition', not the norm) I don't see any new models. That's a good thing.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...UNTIL
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
Last edited on Tue Oct 28th, 2008 01:36 am by Island Woman MJ
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Tue Oct 28th, 2008 03:46 am |
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...UNTIL
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
And this follow up from the aforementioned pro met off S2K:
"In other words - it's not likely to develop quickly and then winds become unfavorable for development in a couple of days, so no development is expected."
I'm not saying ignore it, I'm saying...keep an eye out, but not with big worries. We'll know more in a few days.
Last edited on Tue Oct 28th, 2008 03:48 am by Island Woman MJ
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Tue Oct 28th, 2008 12:39 pm |
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The signs continue to be good for this to not develop...keep the mind pushes going !!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE NIGHT. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...UNTIL
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Tue Oct 28th, 2008 05:52 pm |
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Bettah and bettah...now...just fall apart, 92, like...oops, I can't say that here!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE.
THEREFORE...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Tue Oct 28th, 2008 11:45 pm |
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Just say no! Most of the weather weenies seem to be in consensus that this is pretty much non-existent as something to be concerned about. Sounds fine to me!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS DRIFTING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE.
THEREFORE...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Attachment: avn-l.jpg (Downloaded 42 times)
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Wed Oct 29th, 2008 11:01 am |
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Persistant little pisser...hoping by 5 to put this to bed
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS DRIFTING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE.
THEREFORE...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Attachment: two_atl.gif (Downloaded 39 times)
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Wed Oct 29th, 2008 12:05 pm |
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Well...unless something else happens, I'm not waiting until 5 to say farewell to 92.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS DRIFTING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Thu Oct 30th, 2008 11:33 am |
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Hope and reality aren't always the same thing! It would be silly to disregard 92L's persistance and a new flare up, no matter how much I want it to go away or how bad it looked yesterday.
Here is the take of a met from stormcarib.com:
"For a system being sheared by 20-25 knot winds, 92L has shown him/her self to be a persistent late season bloomer. Satellite pics this morning show a blowup of thunderstorm activity around 42 W but there is no QuickScat data to determine whether there is a surface low as it missed the system this morning on it's overhead pass. However, pressure is estimated at 1010 mb. Shear is expected to lessen a bit in the next say 36-48 hours which should allow for some slow intensification. There is a narrow belt of 83-85 degree water stretching from the African coast to the Caribbean which will not hurt possible development one bit."
Attachment: avn-l.jpg (Downloaded 24 times) Last edited on Thu Oct 30th, 2008 11:38 am by Island Woman MJ
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Thu Oct 30th, 2008 11:37 am |
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and for the brighter side...for some reason the TWO came out way early this morning (a lot of the timing is off on these right now, must be rest period) saying something much more optimistic. So...take your pick!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Thu Oct 30th, 2008 06:28 pm |
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92L has been deactivated! Let's hope that's the end of it. Some of the WW's are saying there is a chance of it picking up again but thus ends THIS thread on it!
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