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admin
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Posted: Sat Sep 1st, 2007 05:23 pm |
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From Jeff Masters....
A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, has developed a closed circulation and some heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. This disturbance has been labeled "98L" by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under about 20 knots of winds shear from strong upper-level winds from the south, but this shear is forecast to gradually slacken over the next few days, and should be below 10 knots by Monday night, and under 5 knots by Wednesday. 98L is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 98L, but I expect it will develop. The storm will be approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. Given 98L's more northerly starting location, it may affect Puerto Rico--as early as Wednesday.
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sat Sep 1st, 2007 06:33 pm |
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Well, you started it, admin, and it looks like you will get to carry on with it. I'm supposed to be out of here early Tuesday morning with exactly what I wasn't wanting a potential reality. But...hey, such is life. The shack and cart will be as protected as possible and the winds will or will not huff and puff and blow my stuff down. Much more importantly, all being safe and well.
As ever, watch, wait, hope for the best, prepare for the worst and enjoy the day! It's quite warm today but with a lot of breeze, wonderful for the beach or clothes drying...hmmm, what a decision...
Attachment: PF_1958723.jpg (Downloaded 61 times)
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admin
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Posted: Sat Sep 1st, 2007 07:57 pm |
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It's always rough leaving the island this time of the year -- it's a time that you yearn for a time off the rock, yet worry, and worry, and worry about storms.....hopefully 98 will become 0 before then! In the meantime, enjoy the pre-vacation excitment!!
I'll try and do as a good a job as you do on the weather while you're off galavating with that crazy brother of yours.
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sat Sep 1st, 2007 08:32 pm |
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And galivanting we shall be! Up in them thare mountains, runnin' through the woods to the crick, shootin' bahrs, and hunting 'sang, drinkin' shine and eatin' deer. Can't wait! (I'm only kidding about shooting bears, really...*cough*)
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admin
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Posted: Sat Sep 1st, 2007 08:36 pm |
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Diving Debbie
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Posted: Sat Sep 1st, 2007 10:47 pm |
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| MJ - is this a road trip, or are you flying? If you're driving from FLL to the mountains, and your route takes you through Hotlanta,we would love to see you and treat you to dinner. Let me know. . .
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admin
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Posted: Sat Sep 1st, 2007 11:06 pm |
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you might want to seriously re-consider that offer.....keep in mind 1) Island Woman has not been off the rock in a while and might not be stateside sociably presentable, and 2) she'll be traveling with that crazy brother......but it'd still be good for some pictures!!!
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sun Sep 2nd, 2007 10:39 am |
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Beautiful offer, but we're on a mission, FLL to northwestern NC, back through Orlando to see my daughter, back to FLL - in less than a week so I can jump on a plane to Montreal. If you hear a lot of laughter and a zoom sound, that might be us heading north or south!
On to 98L. At the moment it is taking a south dive which models show will turn back north. Of course, that means who knows, for the most part. But definitely something to keep an eye on until it poofs or passes.
Attachment: storm_98.gif (Downloaded 49 times)
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Caribe704
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Posted: Sun Sep 2nd, 2007 01:29 pm |
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Im up for whatever, since Island woman cant drive, she would have to nap every 4 miles
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admin
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Posted: Sun Sep 2nd, 2007 01:36 pm |
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| she also probably has forgotten what to do at stop lights. and her idea of speeding on the highways would be 25 mph.....
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Diving Debbie
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Posted: Sun Sep 2nd, 2007 04:58 pm |
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I'd like to see her reaction to Atlanta drivers. She won't be napping. She'll be on the floor cowering in fear.
We live off of I-85 North (less than a mile from the exit), just inside the I-285 loop. If you need a potty break, or a good stiff drink, give us a call. Standing offier! We'll be in cooler climes September 7-11.
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sun Sep 2nd, 2007 06:56 pm |
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Hey...my driver says ok, I say ok! I've driven in Atlanta before, a number of times. Didn't like it the first time or any of the rest. those roads aren't for me...
Now Macon, the H & H Restaurant downtown...I can do that drive anytime!
(in another life, long ago and far away, that's where I spent some of my rock and roll years... just found a story where they honored Mama Louise for 40 years of taking care of business http://www.mamalouise.com/ Wish I'd been there! )
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Sun Sep 2nd, 2007 07:16 pm |
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Caribe704 wrote: Im up for whatever, since Island woman cant drive, she would have to nap every 4 miles
You never LET me drive! Which gives me more time to look around and start our road songs...
"Jonny, you tired?"
"Nope, I'm fine."
"Did you see that giant plastic cow back there?"
"Yeah..."
"Do you see that giant plastic woman up ahead?"
"Yeah..."
"Well...there's a giant plastic fam MAH LEE...headin' down Hwy # 3, gonna get them all together, sick of watchin' just a car and then a truck..."
"And the giant plastic family's gonna, on Hwy # 3, is gonna ffffffffffly off into the weather, down the road."
"Hey...I just spewed iced tea out of my nose...good line, bro'!"
Try that for 15 hours...Atlanta traffic has nothing on it.
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admin
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Posted: Sun Sep 2nd, 2007 07:22 pm |
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| like I said, you may want to think twice about inviting these two into your homes -- although they'll always be in my heart.....
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Mon Sep 3rd, 2007 11:24 am |
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The fate of 98L is still literally, in the wind. It could or could not organize. It could or could not head toward this area, all still a guessing game with hopes that science can start putting a bead on it soon.
The official version:
NHC-530am
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT
HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS LIMITED AND
DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED
AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Mon Sep 3rd, 2007 11:52 am |
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This is the latest on what the models are saying...while I don't stand by the models for much - they are a guidance and I sure hope this one is correct!
WHXX04 KWBC 031116
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L
INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 3
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 10.8 39.7 220./ 5.0
6 10.9 39.6 71./ 1.8
STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
6z GFDL dissipates it in 6 hours.
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Hillman
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Posted: Mon Sep 3rd, 2007 03:35 pm |
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MJ, A BonVoyage flower for you.
Attachment: FlamFlower2.JPG (Downloaded 21 times)
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Mon Sep 3rd, 2007 04:48 pm |
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Hillman, thank you for the thought, the beautiful flower and the brightness of it on this now dark and rainy day. MJ
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admin
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Posted: Mon Sep 3rd, 2007 05:44 pm |
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those flowers are beautiful, and definately a bright spot on a very dark day.
Island Woman, have a very, very safe trip and lots of love and fun on all your travels with your loved ones.....
we will definately miss your posts, but hopefully Hillman and I can keep up the weather side of things.
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Island Woman MJ
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Posted: Mon Sep 3rd, 2007 06:05 pm |
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Thanks for the good wishes! I have no doubt you two can keep the weather side (and the beauty side, Hillman!) of our spot in the world well covered. I leave my little part of the cyber world in good hands...and look forward to over-indulging in country and city and then getting my butt back home.
Last edited on Mon Sep 3rd, 2007 06:06 pm by Island Woman MJ
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