| Author | Post |
|---|
Island Woman MJ
Island Expert
| Joined: | Mon Dec 25th, 2006 |
| Location: | Culebra |
| Posts: | 2593 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
|
Posted: Sun Oct 28th, 2007 04:04 am |
|
Upgraded to a tropical depression around 11:00 p.m. TD 16 continues moving to the west, but, according the lenghthy discussion ends on this note:
Both the track and intensity forecasts have greater than normal
uncertainty at this time.
The models aren't hugely divergent, but enough so that impact with land, if any, is very unclear. What is clear is that the DR and Haiti are in for some serious rain, which as we all know, is a bad thing, especially for Haiti. where many deaths occured only a couple of weeks ago from the results of a tropical wave.
This is a large storm, and PR is still experiencing strong and dangerous weather because of it. Here, the rain has quit again and the winds have calmed down. I keep thinking it's over; maybe this time it is!Attachment: at200716_sat[1].jpg (Downloaded 36 times) Last edited on Sun Oct 28th, 2007 04:06 am by Island Woman MJ
____________________
Salva lo que queda! Save What's Left!
|
Island Woman MJ
Island Expert
| Joined: | Mon Dec 25th, 2006 |
| Location: | Culebra |
| Posts: | 2593 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
|
Posted: Sun Oct 28th, 2007 04:07 am |
|
Some of the models predictions (note where the center is, compared to the weather we've been having all day! And yes, if Wrong Way Lenny has come to mind, it has come to my mind as well...I truly doubt that scenario, but I will be glad when this is gone)
Attachment: at200716_model[1].gif (Downloaded 34 times) Last edited on Sun Oct 28th, 2007 04:11 am by Island Woman MJ
____________________
Salva lo que queda! Save What's Left!
|
Island Woman MJ
Island Expert
| Joined: | Mon Dec 25th, 2006 |
| Location: | Culebra |
| Posts: | 2593 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
|
Posted: Sun Oct 28th, 2007 11:54 am |
|
While the sun isn't exactly showing itself this morning, the view is a lot brighter than almost all of yesterday. Our forecast is calling for scattered showers this morning and thunderstorms this afternoon, but doesn't specify quite where except "local islands" and "forecast area". We know what that means...that we don't know what it means. But I will stick to the bright side of things...it can't be as bad as yesterday because it isn't raining now!
The flash flood warning is now a flash flood watch until noon, also better news. The not so good news is that Haiti looks like it is getting slammed, always a very bad thing for them.
Our view this morning...
Attachment: IMG_7307.jpg (Downloaded 29 times)
____________________
Salva lo que queda! Save What's Left!
|
Island Woman MJ
Island Expert
| Joined: | Mon Dec 25th, 2006 |
| Location: | Culebra |
| Posts: | 2593 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
|
Posted: Sun Oct 28th, 2007 11:58 am |
|
| This storm covers hundreds of miles, which is why, though it is far to our southeast, we are still getting effects. Attachment: goes.jpg (Downloaded 27 times)
____________________
Salva lo que queda! Save What's Left!
|
admin
Administrator
| Joined: | Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | 2565 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
|
Posted: Sun Oct 28th, 2007 12:03 pm |
|
| that is one big, grande blob! My prayers go out to Haiti and the DR.......this can't be good news on top of the horrible flooding and mudslides they had.....there is no vegetation left to stop the torrents of rain.......and i'm sure what little was left was destroyed two weeks ago.....
____________________
Life is short. Break the rules, Forgive quickly, Love truly, Laugh uncontrollably,
and never regret anything that made you smile!
|
Island Woman MJ
Island Expert
| Joined: | Mon Dec 25th, 2006 |
| Location: | Culebra |
| Posts: | 2593 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
|
Posted: Sun Oct 28th, 2007 02:51 pm |
|
| Well, it is raining now, with semi-white out conditions at the moment. I was feeling that see-saw of go open the cart or not...glad I didn't.
____________________
Salva lo que queda! Save What's Left!
|
Island Woman MJ
Island Expert
| Joined: | Mon Dec 25th, 2006 |
| Location: | Culebra |
| Posts: | 2593 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
|
Posted: Sun Oct 28th, 2007 05:05 pm |
|
Just when I thought it was really calming down...the winds picked up higher than the whole event so far...or it feels like that up here. We are being slammed by rain and wind, coming from the *wrong* direction. Louvers are slamming around, and the animals are NOT enjoying this.
The weather weenies are saying they believe this is already a tropical storm, though that hasn't been officially stated by the NHC or NWS crews yet. Lots of confusion as to the track as well. All I know is, if we are getting THIS, Hispanola is getting a nightmare...and whoever is next will as well.
____________________
Salva lo que queda! Save What's Left!
|
admin
Administrator
| Joined: | Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | 2565 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
|
Posted: Sun Oct 28th, 2007 05:11 pm |
|
Yikes!!! Hang in there!!!! You must be getting the tail end winds......I pray that all come out safe and sound.
this from Jeff Masters......
Tropical Depression 16 continues to get more organized today as it chugs slowly west-northwest at 6 mph. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows heavy rains affecting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, and these rains are expected to spread over Haiti today. Satellite loops show very vigorous thunderstorms reaching high into the atmosphere have developed on the storm's northeast side. A recent microwave satellite image (Figure 1) shows rain rates of up to 1 inch per hour in these thunderstorms. Wind shear has fallen to 15-20 knots this morning, and is expected to fall below 15 knots later today. This should allow TD 16 to continue to develop, and it is probably already Tropical Storm Noel. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and will let us know more later this afternoon. The first flight of the NOAA jet is Monday night.Last edited on Sun Oct 28th, 2007 05:12 pm by admin
____________________
Life is short. Break the rules, Forgive quickly, Love truly, Laugh uncontrollably,
and never regret anything that made you smile!
|
Current time is 12:31 pm | |
|
