I wasn't going to post anything about the weather today, but it's interesting enough to warrant something noted. Light rain throughout the night and this morning (stopped now), 74 degrees (feels like 60...must be those gusty breezes!) and sunshine is what is happening at the moment. This is reflected in the discussion, my morning entertainment and much better than the front page of the BBC world news. There are coastal flood warnings until 2 p.m. And for those of you with expectations of 25 knot winds...don't.
Tonight is prime time to get those shots of beavers at their shiny, sleeky best in the light of the full Beaver Moon. We'll settle for burrowing land crabs here.
Discussion...showers have increased over the local area as a band
of moisture crosses the U.S. Virgin Islands and is poised to move
onshore in northeast Puerto Rico. This will give very good chances
for rain over the north and northeast coastal sections of Puerto
Rico and Culebra and Vieques this morning...but will not yield large
amounts of rain in any particular place. Nevertheless National Weather Service Doppler
radar showed up to 1 inch accumulation since midnight in Rio
Grande and just offshore over the Atlantic from San Juan to Vega
Baja California. Drier air follows but by 21z another band of moisture is
expected to approach the area affecting Saint Thomas and Saint
John first and then Puerto Rico by late tonight. Models disagree
on actual placement of the best moisture...so chose the NAM since
it was least disjointed in its depiction of the continuity of the
rainfall areas. The bands become less pronounced and the showers
areas lessen and weaken as the week progresses...but winds also
increase and this should enhance orographic effects. Some gusty
winds will be felt...especially today...Sunday and Monday night.
At this time do not expect sustained winds of 25 miles per hour...but some
areas could see isolated gusts to 35 miles per hour at these times. Winds
will decrease when the strong surface high...only now exiting the
eastern part of the United States...begins to move northeast into
the north central Atlantic and low pressure that begins digging
northward into the Atlantic near 40 west on Monday...moves close
enough on Tuesday and Wednesday to bring more northeast flow to
the area. That northeast flow will again hold high temperatures
down over the area...but mostly on the north and northeast coasts.
Precipitable water during the next 4 to 5 days will be quite
variable owing to the bands of moisture that will bring showers to
the area and this will keep probability of precipitation elevated and also keep
temperatures mild. |
Last edited on Sat Nov 24th, 2007 12:06 pm by Island Woman MJ
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